Hi again!
6:30 PM Update:
No major changes to the forecast. There is a concern for a flash freeze mainly north of I-76. As the arctic front approaches, there will be precip that develops. Initially, this may be rain. Once the front moves through it’ll drop quickly into the teens freezing any liquid pretty quick. A layer of ice is possible around Greeley and Ft. Collins and Loveland.
Take a look at this forecast radar gif. It clearly shows the heavy snow associated with the cold front running down the Front Range early Wednesday morning. Then another strong burst of snow that traverses the state from SW to NE. This will bring extremely gusty winds with it.
By 8 am, most folks from the Denver area to Ft. Collins should have 2-6″ of snow on the ground. More north and west.
By the evening time, everyone should double what they woke to. Meaning a widespread 4-9″ of snow is possible along the Front Range near Denver and Ft. Collins.
By the end of the event, Wolf Creek may have gotten over 30″ of fresh snow with extremely tough travel from Pagosa Springs to Durango and in the San Juans in general.
Wednesday is going to be much different than Tuesday! Get ready.
Sorry for the tardiness on this report. For anyone unaware, forecasting and creating weather content is not my main job. Although I’m a degreed meteorologist, I have yet to find an amazing company to forecast for that I enjoy (i.e. TV, private, gov’t) so I do it for myself on my own dime. I do thank you for all the support on socials but given that this doesn’t pay me anything, it’s tough to prioritize at the moment.
If you enjoy this weather content, continue reading for more.
Without further ado! Here’s the forecast for this midweek storm! As always, follow me on social for more.
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It’s such a beautiful Fat Tuesday out there. It’s currently 60º at my place in Cap Hill and it feels oh so nice. It’s been windy windy lately. 60-100 mph gusts have been reported across Colorado this week. We have a major storm that’s moving through the west and a prolonged period of unsettled weather is expected to give all mountain west locations a healthy dosing of snow. That means Colorado ski areas are going to have really awesome conditions for the next bit.
Check out the far reaches of the winter storm(s) that are about to impact the west.
Pinks, oranges and purples are all winter alerts. The deep pinks are for fire weather, and the browns, and tans are for wind. This is a big storm that’ll bring impacts from coast to coast.
For Colorado, it looks like this:
Everywhere in pink is a winter storm warning. Purple is a winter weather advisory and the orange you see are blizzard warnings for the eastern San Juans where 1-2 feet of snow is expected with 80 mph winds!
Lots to talk about including some intense, arctic cold as well. Let’s break it down by timing and type of impact.
WIND
This storm means business regarding winds. As you’ve probably noticed, there’s been bouts of gusty winds for the past several days. Especially in the northern part of the state. Winds will continue to be strong for everyone except around Denver and the NE Plains as they’ll be protected a bit from the strongest winds.
For Wednesday, we currently only have wind highlights for SoCo but all of the winter storm messaging includes strong winds with gusts to 60 mph. So, no matter where you are in the mountains, it’ll be a gusty day and night.
Here’s a look at statewide animations of winds for Wednesday. You can really see the progression of the cold front at the beginning of the day in NE Colorado followed by a strong surge of winds from the SW. That’s a feature that’ll bring a round of heavy snowfall. More on that to come.
So, SW winds provide great upslope for the San Juans and some Central mountain ranges. However, SW winds create downsloping off the Raton Mesa which is why SE Colorado won’t be getting much if any, snow from this.
These winds will create blowing snow where it is snowing so be prepared for limited visibility if you’re out. Which – it’s not advised to be on the roads anywhere in Colorado on Wednesday. Blowing dust could be an issue in SE Colorado.
SNOW
Snow is starting in the mountains already. There are two main factors we are watching on Wednesday. One is a cold front. the other is a shortwave. Each of these will create a respective “burst” in snow for a period of time. The cold front will provide the initial burst of snow for the morning commute across I-25 from the Palmer Divide to Cheyenne, WY. The second burst of snow will come in the mid-afternoon.
Although there will be a few distinct meteorological happenings, snow will be falling at varying rates for much of the day so prepare for an oddly similar Wednesday to what we had last week.
On that note, for anyone wondering, yes – midweek has been the chosen time for the snow to occur not just this season but since 2019.
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday have seen the most snow of any day of the week over the several few seasons – followed by Sunday.
Anyway…
Here’s a look at expected snow totals across the state.
A truly healthy dose of snow is coming to a lot of areas. Sorry SE Colorado – not you. The northern Front Range will do the best in terms of snow amounts for the Urban Corridor area. Ft. Collins and Boulder should be ready for a solid winter storm. It’s possible that totals go up in Denver, but it won’t change by much at this point. The San Juans and areas like Durango and Pagosa Springs will once again have a possible foot+ snowstorm.
Mountain travel will be very difficult anywhere and it probably won’t be better till Thursday morning.
Avalanche danger is a concern as well for any backcountry folks going out.
Steamboat Springs will see another round of snow adding to their pretty incredible season.
COLD
Lastly, the cold will be intense as arctic air spills in. High remain below freezing almost everywhere both Wednesday and Thursday will gusty winds and dangerous windchills. Here’s a look at forecast windchills over the next 48 hours.
Bundle up! It’s going to be a cold few days! There’s the potential for a few record-cold temperatures to break during this time.
The nice thing is that we’re going to rebound nicely into the weekend. Here’s a look at Denver’s forecast.
50s and sunny will melt all the snow quickly and feel great.
We have another system to watch for Sunday-Monday and then another possibly at the end of next week. You’ll hear from me soon.
Enjoy the weather!
~Andy
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