Wetter weather. Say that a few times. haha.
Saturday is going to be a hot day. Highs will jump into the mid 90s despite some building clouds. BUT a cool front is moving through and that will bring thicker clouds and the decent chance for showers to the region Saturday afternoon.
After that, thanks to incoming monsoon moisture, combined with this cool front, Sunday should be a pretty showery and at times stormy day across the state.
Monday will return to hot weather and 90s over the Plains but there will be a chance for an afternoon storm with better chances in the mountains.
Tuesday will usher in more changes as another push of cooler air moves in. At this same time, a steady flow of monsoon moisture with be overhead. This will create cooler afternoon highs (mid 80s for the Plains and 60s/70s for the High Country) and it will create a solid chance for afternoon storms Tuesday through the end of next week.
That’s the short and sweet version. Here are the maps and the deets.
Upper Level Winds
You’ll notice the ring of winds over Colorado at the beginning of the gif below. Then winds turn more northwesterly as we head towards next week when the high pressure shifts west.
Northwesterly flow is beneficial for daily storm development and with northwesterly winds most of next week, let’s hope we can stack up some rain.
Of course, favorable winds in the upper levels can only do so much. Thankfully, there will be plenty of moisture around as well.
Monsoon moisture will be in place through much of the upcoming forecast period. Take a look at the precipitable water anomaly starting today and last through next Friday. Precipitable water is how much water the atmosphere is holding. We typically see 0.25-0.50″ of precipitable water, anything above that makes it much easier actually produce rain combined with some other parameters like forcing, lift and instability – all of which will be present in at least some fashion.
You can notice the curvature of the winds as this level as moisture moves in from the Baja of California towards the desert SW and into Colorado. Every once in a while you’ll see pulse of moisture coming down the Front Range. That is the cool front pushing moisture around.
What this all means is that there will be a decent shot of afternoon storms each day next week across much of Colorado.
Saturday will turn wet pretty quick across the High Country with showers and heavier downpour possible along the I-25 corridor in the afternoon hours. Here’re a few snapshots of what the radar could look like today and Sunday.
Click through those images above for a closer look at you area but what you can see from skimming over is that there’ll be pretty decent coverage of rain Saturday afternoon/evening and most of the day Sunday with the potential for heavy rain to occur.
There is not much of a threat for severe weather outside of heavy rain and flash flooding. Some heavier downpours could have strong winds but with monsoon moisture, heavy rain is typically the biggest threat. Below is the heavy rain threat for this weekend.
Heavy rain potential today will be across most mountain locations and the I-25 corridor. Then Sunday, that threat expands to much of the state with a big focus on the Front Range mountains and I-25 corridor. Foothill locations and those on the Palmer Divide should be prepare for heavy rain. Burn scar flooding will also be a potential all weekend.
By Monday, a decent amount of rain may fall.
Upwards of a half inch to over an inch of rain may accumulate this weekend in the blue to yellow areas.
As I mentioned, our pattern stays active Tuesday through at least Friday of next week and rain may really stack up in some areas with daily afternoon storms expected.
By the end of next week, it’s possible for a large chunk of the state to get more than an inch of rain with a notable large portion of the state getting 2-3″ of rain. This would be great news for the drought that has yet again expanded and deepened in some areas.
On that note, here’s a look at the current drought status and what change we saw with this weeks update.
Denver is now back in Severe drought as are portions of the Palmer Divide. So the incoming rain should prove to be very beneficial for these and many other areas.
Lastly, with all the clouds and rain around, we will see our streak of hot weather come to an end. High will drop to near or even below average at times. Here are some select locations in Colorado and the temp forecasts.
A nice downward trend is noticeable across the board.
Enjoy the wet weather! I’ll have more updates on next weeks forecast Monday.
Enjoy the weekend and watch out for heavier rain in the high country today and tomorrow.