The 2005 hurricane season was the most active hurricane season on record. 2020’s hurricane season is poised to be similar to that which does not bode well for Islands in the Caribbean or anywhere along the US coast.
Here are some of the updated number for what is expected this hurricane season.
This is the forecast put out by Colorado State University – a well-respected outlet that has forecast hurricane seasons for many many years.
CSU is now calling for this years hurricane season to produce DOUBLE the normal amount of storms.
24 named storms (we’ve seen 9 storms as of 8/5/2020)
12 hurricanes (we’ve seen 2 hurricanes as of 8/5/2020)
5 major hurricanes (no major hurricanes yet – as of 8/5/2020)
It’s important to note that this includes what we have already seen. With that said, we could see 15 more named storms, 10 more hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes that have yet to form.
Why The Increase?
There are a few reasons. One is that the African monsoon is extremely active this year. A more prominent monsoon allows for the possibilities of more storms in the open Atlantic to form.
Another reason is the warm ocean temperatures.
Sea Surface Temperatures are running very warm and hurricanes LOVE their warm water temps. With more African waves pushing across a warm ocean, the probability of seeing those waves form, increases.
Another reason is wind shear. Wind shear typically tears storms apart.
Wind shear in the Atlantic and Caribbean is at an all-time low. Meaning there is much wind shear. That means that storms that roll of of the African coast not only have warm water temperatures to work with, they also won’t be limited due to wind shear.
Essentially, this peak part of hurricane season that we are about to enter into is looking to have all of the ingredients to create storm after storm and with the way that the atmosphere is looking, and continues to look, those storms may be able to strengthen quickly and become very large and damaging.
All-in-all, if you live along the coast are have any interests in the Caribbean, you need to be ready for an extremely active season (which it has already started out to be).
If this forecast varifies, we will begin to see storms name with the greek alphabet. That has only happen one other time in recorded history. That was in 2005.
~ Andy
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