Hey hey! I hope your week has been good. It was honestly one of those weeks where tiny thing after tiny thing went wrong but oh well! It’s the weekend now.

Let’s talk forecast before we jump into some juicy climate info *i.e. I’m about to nerd out*

Alrighty. It’s been pretty warm here…and HUMID! That’s something I didn’t think I’d complain about but jeez, it definitely has been humid.

Okay, so Saturday doesn’t look the greatest. It will most likely rain at some point in the afternoon/evening. A shortwave is going to move across the area and bring in an increased chance of rain. This will aid in holding our temps down which will be kind of nice – but with added moisture, the humidity problem won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.

Sunday and Monday look better. Northwesterly winds will bring in drier air which will lower humidity and lower our rain chances. With that said, we have a minor chance of rain both days. Highs will be normal. Near 90º.

Next week, we bring in some *actual* monsoon moisture. Upon further investigation of the monsoon, could you believe that it actually hasn’t started yet? Shocked me too but there are specific parameters that define when it has started and those have just started to get above the threshold needed. A good write-up about that was written from long-time Denver meteorologist Matt Makens. https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2019/07/23/throw-monsoon-into-the-polar-vortex-and-bomb-cyclone-club/

Here’s a good photo showing the increased humidity in the Baja of California.

PWAT Values – anomaly 

Essentially, precipitable water values are finally started to show signs of being above average which equals monsoon moisture.

We could use some moisture. It’s actually been pretty dry across the Western US. Take a look below:

Precip. anomaly for June so far 

this shows that much of Western Colorado and much of the Western US is dry this month. Like, really dry. So we need some monsoon moisture to bring us up to normal.

A different way to look at July precip as compared to normal is below.

Departure from normal precip for July  

What you can take from this map is that Denver is actually doing okay in the water department. As are areas around Pueblo, CO. But as a whole state – we’re below average.

To prove even further that we’re running dry…drought is back in Colorado after an 8-9week stint of having no drought! (This period of no drought for Colorado was the first time in recorded history that there had been no drought)

Drought is back in Colorado. 

Overall, yes we need some moisture but we’re not doing bad by any means. We just need this monsoon moisture to kick in and it looks like it’s going to do so next week. 

Precip. outlook for August 1-5

According to the CPC, we should have an increase in moisture to start off the month of August ( can you believe we’re to August already?!)

Now, temps are also expected to increase for that same period. 
temp. outlook for August 1-5 
If we look further into the month of August – it shows a similar pattern holding true. 
Precip. outlook for August 3-9 

Even the longer terms models are suggestions an increase in moisture well into August. That’s good news for us! Maybe we can get this drought out of here. 

Temp Outlook August 3-9

Temperatures should return to near-normal for the second week of August. 

Overall, we’re doing okay here in Colorado but we’re definitely running on the dry side.
Enjoy the weekend! And don’t let those Saturday storms get to ya! 
~Rain or shine
  I’m Andy Stein

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