Andy's Weather

Happy Thursday! Here’s a look at how Colorado is looking around 10:00 am this morning.

Well, the promise of monsoon rains over the last few weeks have been hit or miss across the Front Range. Lots of rain has been realized across the state but some areas (Denver in particular) have missed out on the goods. The early start to the monsoon season has been great to SW Colorado. A look at the monthly rain for June shows southern and SW Colorado got the good stuff.

Over the last month, there was a notable surplus of moisture in the San Juans. A lot of which came over the last two weeks.

Looking at the last 7 days which have been active as well shows a similar story.

Some locales on the eastern Plains have struggled a bit in terms of rain this month and in those areas drought concerns have grown a bit but thanks to all the rain in the San Juans, drought has improved there.

Here’s a look at the most recent drought update (above left). Most areas of the San Luis Valley and the San Juan mountains have seen their drought improve (the green shade in the above right photo). Areas around Denver, Ft. Collins, Boulder, Sterling and Burlington have actually seen drought return due to a lack of rain this month.

Overall, it’s been a story of two tales. The good news is that more rain is forecast for a broader area and the areas that saw drought improvement were getting into rough territory so I’m happy to see the improvement where it occurred.

FORECAST

Overview:

• A weak upper level trough will flow over Colorado through Friday bringing heightened storm chances to the region through the period.
• Ridging builds to our south and east and monsoon flow will continue to bring moisture into the state through the long weekend
• Ridging builds overhead, decreases rain chances and increases our heat as we head past the Fourth of July.

Details:

Thursday/Friday
Rather numerous storms should develop over the high country and push east through the day. It’s looking like there will be plenty of moisture around both days and thanks to decent upper level flow, the storms should have some quickness to them which will limit the threat of flash flooding.

With that said, a few storms could produce very heavy rainfall around the Grizzly Creek burn scar so that’s an area to watch today and Friday.

This weekend, we turn to a bit more monsoon flow which tends to impact the higher terrain of Colorado for than the Plains. The further south you live in the state, the better chance you have at seeing storms.

Scattered to numerous storms are expected for the high country this weekend, through Monday the Fourth. If you have weekend plans in the mountains, keep in mind that there will be storms around each afternoon.

Here’s a look at rainfall potential now through the Fourth of July.

It’s looking like a decent setup for rain near the San Juans again, the Sangre de Cristos, the Palmer Divide and the Central mountains. So people with plans in these areas should pay extra attention to the weather this weekend.

The pattern really starts to change as we head later into next week. The NWS is warning that a long-duration ridge could park itself over our area limiting our storm chances through the middle of July and keeping us hot during that time as well.

Here’s some temperature forecasts for a few locales around the state.

Let’s try to squeeze as much moisture out of this weekend as possible so we can get through a period of hot and dry weather without much concern.

Enjoy the fourth and have a great, safe weekend!

*** There is still drought across much of the state and although rain is in the forecast, don’t shoot of fireworks and drown any camp fires that you start. Like, really make sure those suckers are out. Fire bans are in place across certain counties so pay attention to those and don’t test the limits.

~ Andy