Widespread severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern Great Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening, spreading east into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The most dangerous corridor for strong tornadoes and intense damaging winds should be centered on northeast Texas through northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening through the overnight.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook (1/10/20)

Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring this morning over northwest OK.  These storms will persist through the day and spread northeastward into parts of southern KS and eventually western MO. Much of this activity appears to be elevated, with the primary risk being hail.

12z model solutions are in solid agreement that intense convection will form by mid-afternoon roughly along the low-level jet axis across central/eastern OK – building southward into north-central TX.  Forecast soundings show very strong vertical shear and sufficient CAPE for a few supercells, along with bowing structures.  Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with the strongest cells. A strong tornado is possible.  Severe storms should spread eastward into western AR after dark.

By late afternoon, a line of intense storms should develop from the northeast into east-central TX.  These storms will track eastward into a progressively more sheared and moist environment.  Large hail will be the primary threat initially, but storms will quickly evolve into bowing structures with increasing risks of widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes through the night.  Forecast soundings show minimal cap ahead of the line, along with intense low-level shear and ample boundary layer moisture.  This suggests the potential for a few discrete storms to form ahead of the squall line as it moves across parts of AR/LA overnight.  These storms would have the most prominent threat of strong tornadoes.  12z guidance is consistent in timing the squall line into western MS and southwest TN before Sat/12z, with a continued damaging wind and tornado threat.

Hail Probability 

Hail is going to be a big concern today as this storm gets cranking. Hail will be on the order of 1 to 2″ in diameter but in the hatched area, Hail will be on the order of 2″ in diameter or great. This is damaging hail and can cause injury to humans. There will be hail damage to buildings, roofs and cars as well.

Tornado Probability 

Tornadoes in January may seem a little rare. It’s wintertime after all but this is not that rare to have severe weather this time of the year. It is, however, rare to see such strong tornado signals. Tornadoes will be possible, if not likely through the day and through the evening. Some of these tornadoes could be very strong, like in the hatched areas, where stronger than an EF-2 tornado is possible. Please have a way to get severe weather alerts today and tomorrow.

Wind Probability 

Wind is going to be one of the biggest threats during this event. The jet stream is HOWLING over this region and is bringing abnormally strong winds to the highlighted areas. These storms are going to have A LOT of wind energy with it. One thing that may happen with the storms is that there may be extremely strong straight-line winds that are mistaken for a tornado. That’s how strong the wind will be at times.

Please have a way to get weather alerts today. It’s going to be a busy day.


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