It may go against the grain a bit to think that there is a time when thunderstorm chances are low during the summertime months but that it exactly what we are seeing right now and the reason is pretty interesting.
Our Weather Patterns Are Changing
During the spring months, our weather pattern is largely run by synoptic weather patterns such as; low pressure systems and high pressure systems but as we inch closer to astronomical summer, we begin to see the source of our weather change as well.
The North American Monsoon (NAM) is categorized by a wind shift for the southwest United States. For Colorado, this doesn’t normally kick in until late June to mid-July. The NAM brings the desert southwest much of their annual precipitation thanks to moisture being brought in from not only the Gulf of Mexico but also from the Pacific Ocean.
At this time we are caught between the two normal weather makers for our area which keeps our rain chances low. The Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) puts out daily forecasting regarding flooding in Colorado so they are tuned in to all things Colorado water.
Colorado Flood Threats on Twitter is run by the CWCB and they recently tweeted out a photo of the daily probability of measurable precipitation which clearly shows that we are currently in our seasonal minimum for measurable precipitation chances.
From late May to mid-June, all locations see a decrease in daily precipitation chances but as we head to the end of June and through much of July, we see daily precipitation chances increase thanks to the monsoon which keeps moisture chances in the area through August before tapering off into Fall and Winter.
Ultimately, the dryness that we are seeing right now was expected. It just so happens that Mother Nature is working with us to prove what has been the case in Colorado climatological history.
~ Rain or Shine
I’m Andy Stein