Albeit it not very strong, some impacts coming from the approaching winter storm. Snow has been falling in the mountains since Tuesday night. we’ve seen minor accumulations so far but more is on the way for them. As a cold front drops passed Colorado through late Wednesday and Thursday morning, a few snow showers are possible around Denver. It’s not a great setup but it’s possible this is the first official snow of the season for several I-25 cities.
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The Elk Mountains have done the best with recent snows getting up 6″. Other areas in the high country have seen 1-4″ since Tuesday night. More is on the way for them and it could be heavy at times. Our storm is currently in Idaho about to swing down towards New Mexico.
As this system moves through, a band of heavy snow looks to dive south through Colorado embedded along a cold front. That’s when snowfall rates could exceed 1″ per hour across I-70 and points north. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for much of the Central and Northern mountains. Expect tough travel at times through Thursday.
This is great for early season snowpack! Although the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos aren’t included in the advisory, they’ll be expected a few inches of snow as well through Thursday.
For Denver and the Urban Corridor, a cold front swings through Wednesday night with a second surge of cold Thursday morning. A solid band of precipitation should setup along the cold front Thursday morning bringing rain initially before transitioning over to snow. This rain could be moderate for some. Up to a quarter inch of moisture is expected along the Urban corridor although many folks won’t see that much.
As you can see, that streak of moisture draped across the Plains from Denver to Ft. Morgans could be where we see some decent rain/snow. Temperatures will be marginal for snow to accumulate and since the ground is still very warm, although it may appear to be snowing moderately, most of it will not stick.
Temperatures Thursday morning are supposed to hover near freezing before warming into the 40s. Not great for snow but Thursday morning while temperatures are near freezing will be when we could see it. I’m thinking between 6am and noon is the best chance for snow showers and minor (less than 2″) of accumulation around Denver. Halloween weekend looks fantastic btw.
For this to count as our first official snow of the season, we need 0.10″ of snow accumulation as DIA. Here’s the chance of that happening currently.
A 50-70% chance of measurable snow across the Urban Corridor is good enough for me to believe we’ll have the first snow Thursday. 0.10″ of snow is really not impressive though. Here’s the chance of 1″ of snow or more.
The chance drops pretty greatly when we look at the possibility of 1″ of snow. I will say, recent hi-res models have been hinting at a slightly wetter/snowier solution so this chance may creep up a bit.
There’s practically no chance of 2″ of snow across the Urban Corridor.
If that band of moisture Thursday morning ends up over-performing, there will be some places around Castle Rock/Boulder/Highlands Ranch that could see 2″ or more.
For the mountains, there’s a great chance of more than 2″ of snow. Some areas are likely to end with more than 6-8″ of snow.
Overall, there is deep cold and some precipitation coming. Here’s the snow forecast I feel comfortable with.
Tag me in any photos or videos you take of the snow! And bundle up, a deep freeze is coming Friday morning.
Enjoy the weather!
~Andy
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