Everyone knows about the Farmer’s Almanac and its claim to accurately predict weather patterns months and months in advance. Not much stock is ever given to the Farmers Almanac though. The way that they “forecast” is actually unknown.
The Forecast Prognosticator is an employee position at the Farmers Almanac. Whoever is in that role is the only person who knows the secret formula and it’s such a secret that we don’t even know who that person is. In the current role, Caleb Weatherbee holds the forecast prognosticator title but that is not their actual name. It’s a pseudonym for the person which is used not only to protect the person but to protect the proprietary formula…
They don’t completely disregard how they forecast. Apparently, “the formula takes into consideration things like sunspot activity, tidal action of the Moon, the position of the planets, and a variety of other factors” according to its Q&A section. Allegedly, the Farmers’ Almanac is 80 to 85-percent accurate. So, let’s talk winter.
Winter Forecast
Looking at Colorado, apparently “Numb’s the word” and we will be “Just Shovelin’ Along.” This alludes to the possibility of this winter being numbingly cold and so snowy that shoveling will be repetitive. They believe there will be snow from coast to coast and that winter will start gradually. Breaking this down month-to-month, January will start warm. The Farmers’ Almanac predicts that the end of January will be cold in the western US and it will get stormy. It includes the possibility of a Rockies or Northern Plains blizzard. So, January may be a very turbulent month.
In February, the Farmers’ Almanac calls for an overall quiet month to happen. They go onto say that there could be an “atmospheric hemorrhage” of sorts that occurs. To the folks at the Almanac, this means there could be a lot of rain, snow and wind that lashes the west but until or if that happens, February will be quiet.
March will be mostly uneventful but then again, it will be stormy. There will be stretches of uneventful weather but when it does storm, it’s going to be heavy. Temperatures are going to be very flip-floppy in March.
In a final evaluation, the Farmer’s Almanac talks about how winter temperatures all season long will be flip-floppy, “this winter will be doing a lot of flip-flopping, with fluctuating temperatures.”
Most of the time, the issue with these kinds of forecast are that it’s too general and too encompassing which proves true with this forecast. We know winter will be cold. We know it’ll snow. We know there could be a possible blizzard since one happens almost every year. There is no real detail here or a way to actually know what to plan for.
The forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are forecasting a La Niña pattern to set up across the Eastern Pacific in the coming months. Last winter, 2020-2021, was a La Niña season and it produced some of the highest snowfall totals some places in Colorado have ever seen. A La Niña weather pattern normally brings more active weather to the central and northern parts of Colorado during the winter. Long-range forecasts tend to be vague and general because it is difficult to accurately predict weather that far in advance. Technology is advancing every year and every year forecasting gets better and better so trust the actual meteorologists who have all their secrets laid out in front of you.
It’s hard to say exactly what this winter will bring but it’s a safe bet that it’ll be cold at times and it’ll snow at times. There may even be a blizzard. Either way, enjoy the winter season that is inching closer and closer.
Leave a Reply