Andy's Weather

2:30PM Update:

The storm is trending ever so more north and slightly slowly. This is leading to confidence in higher totals approaching Denver. This could also lead to slightly lower totals near COS and PUB. Winter weather alerts have expanded since this morning.

Winter storm warnings have expanded northward into the Foothills of Boulder county and the north Plains. We also have winter weather advisories in place around Estes Park and Greeley. Continue to watch this trend, we could see 6-10″ totals across the metro with this.

Note that it is still supposed to be generally light snow but it will last for a long duration of time.

9:00am update:

Changed the title since people seem to be offended by it. *eye roll*

OG POST:

Hi everyone. Sorry for the tardiness on this report. For anyone unaware, forecasting and creating weather content is not my main job. Although I’m a degreed meteorologist, I haven’t found an amazing company to forecast for that I enjoy (i.e. TV, private, gov’t) so I do it for myself on my own dime. I do thank you for all the support on socials but given that this doesn’t pay me anything, it’s tough to prioritize at the moment.

If you enjoy this weather content, continue reading for more 🙂

Without further ado! Here’s the forecast for this midweek storm! As always, follow me on social for more.

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FORECAST

If you’ve been following this storm, people started talking about it 7 days ago when it appeared to have ‘that look’ of a big spring snowstorm. That forecast held and held until it didn’t. We’re actually still seeing fluctuations in totals even now when the storm is practically here. It’s been a winter of snowstorms and wobbles and tedious track changes and this storm continues that legacy.

Although the incoming storm is actually going to be setting up in a pretty great location to deliver an upslope storm to Colorado, there are a few things that will limit our snowfall (although we’re still expecting some good totals).

First, the storm will be weakening as it traverses the state. It will reach max intensity over northern Arizona. Another factor is that the upper level low and the surface low won’t be stacked on top of each other, they’ll actually be displaced by about 100 miles or so which isn’t great for snow production. The last factor is that the trough in northern Canada is shearing this storm a bit and much like with a hurricane, shear is not good.

With all of that said, this is still a decently strong storm. Here’s a look at the current winter alerts. Pink is a winter storm warning, purple is an advisory and those are directly correlated to the impacts you’ll see.

A few of the aforementioned concerns are not going to change but if this storm wobbles a bit north, we could be talking about higher snowfall totals in Denver. Right now, the heaviest of snow across the state is supposed to fall south of I-70, which leaves a healthy chunk of Colorado real estate up for a storm.

TIMING

Snow moves into the San Juans first today and then will spread north and east as the storm moves in that same direction. The central mountains, Wet mountains and Sangre de Cristos will see snow this afternoon. While, snow will start after dark for the I-25 corridor and SLV.

Southern Colorado (which is in need of moisture) will be getting a healthy dose of moisture from this storm as it drops feet of snow in the San Juans and up to a foot of snow along the Raton Mesa.

Here’s a look at statewide totals. Note the sharp gradient of snow across northern I-25.

Ft. Collins may only get an inch or two while Denver may get a half foot and Trinidad may get a full foot of snow! For the sake of consistency, efficiency and streamlining information, here’s a look at the snow totals expected statewide and the high-end chance of what could fall.

This will be a great storm for Durango and Pagosa Springs. Trinidad and the se mountains are getting a nice drink which is great. Denver should end with 4-6″ of snow. The Palmer Divide will be snarled with 6-10″ of snow. Colorado Springs is getting a nice dose as well.

The thing with this storm, is it’s actually hanging around for a while. It’ll start snowing tonight and won’t end until Wednesday evening for most. This long-duration event is what will allow 4-7″ of snow to add up in Denver. If this storm came together perfectly, this setup would’ve been great for an epic storm. Of course, that’s more of an “oh well” situation so let’s wait till the next one. Our snowiest months are still ahead!

As far as probabilities are concerned, the chances of Denver seeing more than 6″ of snow is slim but non-zero.

As this gif climbs in snow total chances, you’ll notice the trend for higher totals ends up in southern Colorado. This is because of the track, strength and duration of time, etc. Essentially, the further south you live, the better for snow.

For the mountains, north of I-70, not too much snow is expected. Crested Butte, Monarch and Aspen may end up doing okay with 4-8″ but the read snow will be found in the San Juans. So Telluride, Silverton and Wolf Creek are sitting in a pretty spot for heft snows.

This will also be a windy storm. Blowing snow will be an issue on the Plains and on mountain passes. Travel is highly discouraged this afternoon to Wednesday night.

And as always, snow comes with cold. Denver, and the majority of the I-25 corridor, will see highs in the teens to low 20s on Wednesday. With clearing skies and fresh snow, lows into Thursday morning will be in the single digits to near zero. Combined with the wind, -20º windchills are possible so bundle up!

We get a nice rebound into the 50s this weekend with sunshine. So this storm should be more typical of what Coloradans expect: snow then sunshine to melt it.

Enjoy the storm, y’all! Thanks for always reading to the end.

~Andy

If you feel inclined, consider donating a few bucks to Andys Weather. As I mentioned above, this is not my full-time job and I do not get paid to do what I do and I enjoy providing this information for free! But it is time consuming and a little monetary benefit would be nice.